THE GEOGRAPHER ONLINE

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    • IB Geography Introduction
    • Part 1: Geographical Themes >
      • Option B: Oceans and coastal margins >
        • 1. Ocean–atmosphere interactions
        • 2. Interactions between oceans and coastal places
        • 3. Managing coastal margins
        • 4. Ocean management futures
      • Option D: Geophysical Hazards >
        • 1. Geophysical systems
        • 2. Geophysical hazard risks
        • 3. Hazard risk and vulnerability
        • 4. Future resilience and adaptation
    • Part 2: Core Units (SL&HL) >
      • Unit 1: Changing Population >
        • 1. Population and economic development patterns
        • 2. Changing Populations and Places
        • 3. Challenges and opportunities
      • Unit 2: Global climate—vulnerability and resilience >
        • 1. Causes of global climate change
        • 2. Consequences of global climate change
        • 3. Responding to global climate change
      • Unit 3: Global resource consumption and security >
        • 1: Global trends in consumption
        • 2: Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
        • 3: Resource stewardship
    • Part 3: HL Core Extensions >
      • Unit 4: Power, places and networks >
        • 1. Global interactions and global power
      • Unit 5: Human development and diversity
      • Unit 6: Global risks and resilience
    • Internal Assessment
    • Why should I study IB Geography?
  • IB Geography (Old Syllabus)
    • IB Core >
      • 1. Populations in Transition
      • 2. Disparities in Wealth and Development
      • 3. Patterns in Environmental Quality and Sustainability
      • 4. Patterns in Resource Consumption
    • Part 1: Geographical Themes >
      • Oceans and their Coastal Margins
      • Hazards and disasters - risk assessment and response
      • Freshwater - issues and conflicts
      • Urban Environments
    • Global Interactions - HL >
      • Measuring Global Interactions
      • Changing Space - The Shrinking world
      • Economic Interactions and Flows
      • Environmental Change
      • Sociocultural Exchanges
      • Political Outcomes
      • Global Interactions at the Local Level
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    • Extended Essay
  • IGCSE Geography
    • Theme 1: Population and settlement >
      • Population Dynamics
      • Migration
      • Settlements
      • Urban Settlements
      • Urbanisation
    • Theme 2: The natural environment >
      • Plate Tectonics
      • Coasts
      • Rivers
      • Weather and Climate
      • Climate and Ecosystems
    • Theme 3: Economic development >
      • Development
      • Food Production
      • Industry
      • Energy
      • Tourism
      • Water
      • Environmental Risks of Economic development
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  • AS Level Geography
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Content Index
  1. Global Trends
  2. Why is it important to have a stable population?
  3. How do governments address population?
  4. Anti Natalist - One Child Policy China
  5. Demographic Dividend
  6. Case Study: Demographic Dividend - China
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Key words - Changing population

Global Trends 

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View the graphs below:
  1. Discuss what is being shown in each.
  2. Describe any trends
  3. Make a list of some of the possible implications these might have on population.
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Median family income by number of family members
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How many children is idea?
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Gender imbalance in the world
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Ageing populations

Why is it important to have a stable population?

​In some countries, population characteristics cause concern for government officials, politicians, demographers, and the general public.  Some governments worry about rapid population growth, while others express alarm that the population is not growing quickly enough, or in some cases, that the population is actually declining.  Other governments are concerned about skewed sex ratios, high dependency ratios, rapid population momentum, rates of migration that are too high or too low, and the forced movement of people as refugees or through human trafficking.
​
Codrington, Stephen. Our Changing Planet (Planet Geography Book 1) (Kindle Locations 3792-3796). Solid Star Press. Kindle Edition. 
DEMOGRAPHIC DEPENDENCY RATIOS
The process of ageing of populations is not limited to high income countries. The “elderly dependency ratio” (the relation of old persons (65 years and above) to the economically active population (between 15 and 64) is on a steady increase even in Africa. However, the – actual and future – elderly dependency ratios in poor countries are quite a bit smaller than those in rich countries.

​Read the article:
Dependency Ratio
File Size: 116 kb
File Type: pdf
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IB Style Question: 
Plan and write the following essay.
'Discuss to what extent is a large dependency ratio good for a country [15]'
Go through all the information below. Carefully plan, make notes and review the knowledge. 
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Model Answer
Ageing and youthful populations from Steven Heath
The Causes of an ageing populations 
High life expectancy caused by:
  • Good medical care
  • Good diet and improved water supply
  • Good sanitation and hygiene
  • Low birth rates caused by:
  • Emancipation of women
  • Cost of children
  • Emigration of economically active
Problems of an ageing population
  • Shortage of economically active population
  • Reduced taxation income for the government
  • Cost of providing healthcare and care homes (elderly tend to get sick more frequently)
  • Reduced spending on education, policing, transport network, etc.
  • Cost of paying for pensions
  • Service decline (schools, sports centres, etc. not used by older residents)
Solutions to an ageing population 
  • Pro-natalist policies (see below - Singapore)
  • Increased immigration of economically active
  • Increased retirement age
  • Private pensions
  • Private healthcare
  • Increased taxes of economically active
Advantages of an ageing population
  • Elderly people have a lot of experience and can be valuable in the workplace
  • Less money spent on schooling and natal medical care
  • Lower crime rates and less money needed to be spent on policing
aging_population_consequences_geofile.pdf
File Size: 37 kb
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Dependency ratio Case Study
File Size: 1300 kb
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Advantages of elderly workers
  • Workers will have a lot of experience of the workplace (wide skill base)
  • Elderly workers will not take maternity or paternity leave
  • Employers probably won't have to pay into a government pension scheme
  • Elderly people are often seen as more friendly and approachable making them ideal for the service sector
  • Elderly workers can act as mentors for newer staff
  • Elderly workers may be more willing to work part-time or flexitime so companies can alter staff to meet demand.
  • Elderly workers are often more loyal and seen as been more reliable
Disadvantages of elderly workers
  • It might be necessary to retrain some staff in new skills e.g. ICT
  • Elderly workers are more likely to get sick
  • Employers might have to pay higher health insurance premiums
  • Elderly people might be unable to work in many manual (physical) jobs
  • Elderly workers may be less open to new ideas and new technology
  • Elderly workers may only want to or be able to work part-time.
  • Elderly workers are harder to invest in, because they could retire at any time.

Population Policies

How do governments address population?

​PRO/ ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES
These policies are created by the government to monitor young dependents population. If a country has too many young born compared to the economically active part, then if not controlled it could have a negative impact on the society and economy of the country. Like in China where a baby boom has been witnessed, the government had to do something so that the number of babies being born decreased. if this was to continue it would have a negative impact on government spending, therefore it would cost too much for population to have healthcare.
However, if a country has too few children then a pro natalist policy should be introduced so that when the economically active part goes to old dependent then the young ones will take the lead but if they are too few then the economy of the country will suffer because less pension for old and less healthcare for younger due to less people paying taxes in the economical active part.
Population policies from Steven Heath
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Link to UN - Population Division, Policy section

Anti Natalist - One Child Policy China

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Successes 
  • The total fertility rate has fallen from nearly 6 to about 1.7
  • Population growth rate has fallen from a peak of 2.61% in the late 1960's to about 0.65% today
  • Birth rates have fallen from highs of 45 to about 13 today.
  • The availability of contraception has increased
  • Up to 250 million births have been prevented since 1979
  • China's population should peak in the first half of the 2030's (however, it might be as much as 1.45 billion)
Failures
  • There have been criticisms about human rights, not only over freedom of choice, but forced abortions and sterilisations.
  • Female infanticde has taken place, where the boys fave been favoured.
  • There is now a sex imbalance in China (117:100).
  • Many children have been abandoned for adoption.
  • There is an ageing population and an increased dependency ratio
  • There has been shortage of workers in some areas.
  • The so called 'little emperors' syndrome where only children are spoilt
  • The policy has been open to corruption. Many people have paid bribes to have extra children.
  • The population is still 1.3 billion and growing
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Articles
China reforms: One-child policy to be relaxed
China's one-child policy - success or failure?
Population Policy - China
File Size: 294 kb
File Type: pdf
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China population policy update
File Size: 153 kb
File Type: pdf
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Questions:
  • What is meant by the terms ‘pro-natalist policy’ and ‘anti-natalist policy’?
  • In what way has the aim of Singapore’s population policy changed over the past decades?
  • Why is Singapore’s population policy particularly targeting university graduates?
  • Quoting relevant statistics where possible, evaluate the success of Singapore’s population policy.
  • Why did China have a pro-natalist population policy in the 1950s?
  • In what way does raising the minimum age for marriage control population growth?
  • Outline the aims of China’s One Child Policy, and describe the ways in which the policy was implemented from 1980 to 2015.
  • What exceptions were made under the One Child Policy?
  • What were the consequences of China’s One Child Policy?  Quote relevant statistics where possible.
  • Why did the Chinese Government decide to replace the One Child Policy with a Two Child Policy in 2016?
  • ​​Contrast the aims of the Singaporean and the Chinese population policies.



Demographic dividend

While most countries have seen an improvement in child survival rates, birth rates remain high in many of them, particularly in least developed countries. These countries, therefore, rarely enjoy an economic benefit known as the demographic dividend.

Demographic dividend is an occurrence in a country that enjoys accelerated economic growth that stems from the decline in fertility and mortality rates. A country that experiences low birth rates in conjunction with low death rates receives an economic dividend or benefit from the increase in productivity of the working population that ensues. As fewer births are registered, the number of young dependents grows smaller relative to the working population. With fewer people to support and more people in the labor force, an economy’s resources are freed up and invested in other areas to accelerate a country's economic development and the future prosperity of its populace.
To receive a demographic dividend, a country must go through a demographic transition where it switches from a largely rural agrarian economy with high fertility and mortality rates to an urban industrial society characterized by low fertility and mortality rates. In the initial stages of this transition, fertility rates fall, leading to a labor force that is temporarily growing faster than the population dependent on it. All else being equal, per capita income grows more rapidly during this time too. This economic benefit is the first dividend received by a country that has gone through the demographic transition.

First and Second Demographic Dividend
The first dividend period generally lasts for a long time - typically five decades or more. Eventually, however, the reduced birth rate reduces the labor force growth. Meanwhile, improvements in medicine and better health practices leads to an ever-expanding elderly population, sapping additional income and putting an end to the demographic dividend. At this stage, all else being equal, per capita income grows at a decelerated rate and the first demographic dividend becomes negative.

An older working population facing an extended retirement period has a powerful incentive to accumulate assets to support themselves. These assets are usually invested in both domestic and international investment vehicles, adding to a country's national income. The increase in national income is referred to as the second dividend which continues to be earned indefinitely.

The benefits gotten from a demographic transition is neither automatic nor guaranteed. Any demographic dividend to be gotten depends on whether the government implemented the right policies in areas such as education, health, governance, and the economy. In addition, the amount of demographic dividend that a country receives depends on the level of productivity of young adults which, in turn, depends on the level of schooling, employment practices in a country, timing and frequency of childbearing, and economic policies that make it easier for young parents to work. The dividend amount is also tied to the productivity of older adults which depends on tax incentives, health programs, and pension and retirement policies.

There are four main areas where a country can find demographic dividends:
  1. Savings: During the demographic period, personal savings grow and can be used to stimulate the economy.
  2. Labor supply: More workers are added to the labor force, including more women.
  3. Human capital: With fewer births, parents are able to allocate more resources per child, leading to better educational and health outcomes.
  4. Economic growth: GDP per capita is increased due to a decrease in the dependency ratio.

Read more: Demographic Dividend | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/demographic-dividend.asp#ixzz5FWsNal4e 

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Demographic Dividend - China

The demographic dividend and the ways in which population could be considered a resource when contemplating possible futures
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Article: Population Trends in China and India: Demographic Dividend or Demographic Drag?
Further Articles
Fall of demographic dividends foreseeable in China
​China's demographic dividend disappearing
China’s Shift from the Demographic Dividend to the Reform Dividend​
​

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Created and Developed by: Steven Heath

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  • Home
    • How to make a website: Tools and experiences
    • Maps and Regions
    • Travel Photographs and Videos
    • Live: Global Hazards and Disasters
    • Geography in the news
    • The Big Geography Challenge
  • New IB Geography 2017 onwards
    • IB Geography Introduction
    • Part 1: Geographical Themes >
      • Option B: Oceans and coastal margins >
        • 1. Ocean–atmosphere interactions
        • 2. Interactions between oceans and coastal places
        • 3. Managing coastal margins
        • 4. Ocean management futures
      • Option D: Geophysical Hazards >
        • 1. Geophysical systems
        • 2. Geophysical hazard risks
        • 3. Hazard risk and vulnerability
        • 4. Future resilience and adaptation
    • Part 2: Core Units (SL&HL) >
      • Unit 1: Changing Population >
        • 1. Population and economic development patterns
        • 2. Changing Populations and Places
        • 3. Challenges and opportunities
      • Unit 2: Global climate—vulnerability and resilience >
        • 1. Causes of global climate change
        • 2. Consequences of global climate change
        • 3. Responding to global climate change
      • Unit 3: Global resource consumption and security >
        • 1: Global trends in consumption
        • 2: Impacts of changing trends in resource consumption
        • 3: Resource stewardship
    • Part 3: HL Core Extensions >
      • Unit 4: Power, places and networks >
        • 1. Global interactions and global power
      • Unit 5: Human development and diversity
      • Unit 6: Global risks and resilience
    • Internal Assessment
    • Why should I study IB Geography?
  • IB Geography (Old Syllabus)
    • IB Core >
      • 1. Populations in Transition
      • 2. Disparities in Wealth and Development
      • 3. Patterns in Environmental Quality and Sustainability
      • 4. Patterns in Resource Consumption
    • Part 1: Geographical Themes >
      • Oceans and their Coastal Margins
      • Hazards and disasters - risk assessment and response
      • Freshwater - issues and conflicts
      • Urban Environments
    • Global Interactions - HL >
      • Measuring Global Interactions
      • Changing Space - The Shrinking world
      • Economic Interactions and Flows
      • Environmental Change
      • Sociocultural Exchanges
      • Political Outcomes
      • Global Interactions at the Local Level
    • IB Guidance >
      • Syllabus Guidance
      • IB Examination Guidance
    • Extended Essay
  • IGCSE Geography
    • Theme 1: Population and settlement >
      • Population Dynamics
      • Migration
      • Settlements
      • Urban Settlements
      • Urbanisation
    • Theme 2: The natural environment >
      • Plate Tectonics
      • Coasts
      • Rivers
      • Weather and Climate
      • Climate and Ecosystems
    • Theme 3: Economic development >
      • Development
      • Food Production
      • Industry
      • Energy
      • Tourism
      • Water
      • Environmental Risks of Economic development
    • GCSE Key Terms
    • GCSE Coursework
    • Alternative to Coursework
    • IGCSE Geography Examination Advice
    • IGCSE Revision Games
  • Key Stage 3
    • Year 6 >
      • My Place
      • Rivers
      • Brazil
    • Year 7 >
      • Maps and the world
      • Rocky Landscapes
      • Settlement
      • Weather & Climate
    • Year 8 >
      • Maps Introduction
      • Plate Tectonics
      • Economic Activity
      • Biomes
    • Year 9 >
      • Map Skills - review
      • Development
      • Coasts
      • Tourism
      • Paradise lost - Tourism in Thailand
  • AS Level Geography
    • World at Risk
    • Crowded Coasts
  • Geography Skills
  • Donations & Contact
  • YouTube Channel
  • Essential computer programs